Use of Umpire's counts

On another board I was asking what metrics if any, umpire’s counts could be used for. Below is the only answer anyone posted, and my response. As usual, when I don’t have a knowledgeable reply but can look at real data to test hypotheses, I give it a try.

I thought the resulting numbers were kinda kool, so I thought I’d share.

I think its safe to say I’m fully aware of what people BELIEVE is undeniable truth about BA’s in the different counts, and I’m also well aware that there are reasons affecting those BA’s that most people don’t consider.

Unless you’ve actually broken it down, how do you know there’s no significance to the order in which the balls and strikes came? If you have it broken down, I’d sure like to see the results.

Is a 2-2 count AB that went BBSS the same as one that went SSBB? Are the thinking process of the pitcher and hitter the same in each? I’ve tried to see if I could make any sense out of your assumption. Please see the link

As you should be able to see, even though my data only shows what happened in 7,200+ plate appearances for HSV, the way the pitches take place seems to have some kind of significant effect.

The body of the report show all AB’s that finished when the umpire’s count was 2-2. The top of page 1 shows how the different number of pitches break down on the left, and breaks just the ABs that ended in 5 pitches on the right.

Now perhaps after a few million ABs in each one things would look different, but the .110 point difference between starting 0-2 as opposed to 2-0 would seem to imply something going on, and the almost .50 point difference between when the 4th pitch is a ball as opposed to a strike sure seems to make it appear that there is something going on other than just the numbers on the umpire’s counter, at least in the HS ball I’ve scored over the last 4 seasons.

Do you have anything that shows my numbers to be an aberration?