Predicting a pitcher is going to have arm problems is like predicting someone will lose money in Vegas.
The hard part is predicting who won't have arm problems.
The Dodgers predicted Pedro Martinez's arm problems a long time ago, and got rid of him. Problem was that he had a long, very successful career in the meantime.
At some point people have to realize that pitching is hard on the arm and most people are going to have arm problems eventually regardless of mechanics and a very few aren't. You can't pick a pitcher and say that throwing like that pitcher will help you avoid arm problems. That rubber armed pitcher may have mechanics that would destroy another pitcher's arm but simply may heal quicker than most or have stronger tendons or ligaments than most.
Personally, I think that a 5'11" pitcher who used Randy Johnson's mechanics would be quite unlikely to have arm problems, mostly because they'd be unlikely to throw over 80 mph. Less stress, much shorter career.
Heck, the reality is these days that a pitcher who has undergone TJ may have a higher value than one who hasn't because he's probably less likely to need TJ surgery in the future.