Scouting reports of college players

I saw a pair of scouting reports online of 2 potential top 10 picks for the 2010 MLB draft. Each escouting report had these two prospects at 90-94 mph on the fastball. I watched a game in which the two faced off vs eachother on ESPNU had each pitcher 85-88 mph. Take these “scouting reports” from offline with a grain of salt.

Often times it isn’t stated who writes these reports, and what affiliation they have to player/program. Like anything else you see on the internet, be careful to accept what you read as fact. These amateurs can play, but it doesn’t do them any justice to inflate things on multiple scouting reports.

Outside of the University of Texas and UCLA pitching staff, I have rarely seen any starting pitchers comfortably sitting at 90 or above. I know there are more kids than that throwing that hard, but the perception is that at these “top program” schools the kids have average major league fastballs at 19-21 yr olds. That is just not the case. If you watch the college world series this year, take a note of the radar gun reading. Outside of a couple power relievers on each team, you won’t see many 90 mph readings.

I guess a little clarification would help me respond here. The scouting reports I’ve read are signed and the author has a responsibility to his organization to be accurate and fair in his reporting. His job depends on it. Could you provide a link to your source where the reports were exhibited? I could imagine a borderline prospect hiring an agency to sort of sell him by issuing a generic “scouting report”. The problem with that is anyone with serious credibility is going to check them out just like you did.

Also, I can tell you having watched both top 25 colleges and minor league games in person that you will find pitchers throwing from 99mph on down to mid 80’s fastballs. I watched South carolina vs Tennessee and every arm they ran on the mound was 90 plus except one sidearm lefty specialist that tossed it mid 80 to 88 tops.

Don’t forget that by the time they get to the world series all of these guys will have tossed a ton of innings and will be on short rest.

First off, the college arms in this year’s draft are way down. I don’t think any of them “project” to be aces, heck maybe not even #2 type starters.

Anyways, are you referring to Pomeranz and McGuire?

I’ve heard that many radar guns typically bloat the velocity readings. I think somebody once told me that Jon Lester typically throws 90, 91 on a stalker, when on ESPN he throws around 93-95. I mean 90 is still good, its just no 95.

I was at a frederick keys game yesterday (class a adv) for the Orioles. An ex teammate of mine was pitching for the visiting team. He saved some tickets for me so i was sitting with the players and wifes of players etc.

A RHP for the Keys was sitting next to me, (coincidentally someone whom i had played against in the summer) He was running radar for the frederick keys.

So I was peaking (OF COURSE) and the stadium radar gun was sporadic. The gun showed 84-94 at random times.

On the players stalker gun the pitcher was 87, 87, 89, 88, 87, 90.

Same for my buddy who was pitching for the other team. he was also around 86-90, while the stadium gun was off by alot.

ESPN’s gun can be high, and that adds to my point. Pomeranz and smyly each had scouting report of their fastballs in the low 90s up to 94. In that game i saw pomeranz and smyly 85-88. Just becareful of what you see in these college guys and realize it takes alot of work to throw in the low 90s with DEPENDABILITY. Perhaps at some point in the season, these men were throwing in the low 90s. To make a scouting report and list them at 90-94 doesn’t do the player, coaches, organizations, and fans any justice. List them at 85-94 if that is what they throw.

On MLB.com their is a scouting report of pomeranz and in that it says he throws 90-92 consistently. This is just not the case.

In 2009, pitch f/x (most reliable souce of velo readings) had jon lester’s avg fastball velocity at 93.5. So far in 2010, his avg fastball velo is 93.9.
Also, Lesters fastball velo range this year has been from about 91-97.

I believe that they throw low 90’s for the most part or id be going D1 not D3 i throw consistently 84-87 touching 88, 89 coming out of relief my guess is those 90-94 are for real because i didnt get one interest from D1 with my speed and i have some solid control.

It could be that these numbers were taken out of relief or early in the season but faking some numbers wont produce a dependable MLB pitcher they need to actually pitch that to get to the bigs.

on ESPNU right now, UC irvine vs Cal Poly. Irvines pitcher is 86-89 so far and poly’s is 84-86

thats what makes me feel bad is some of the better D1 pitchers in the nation pitch at or about the same speed as me. It just shows though velocity isnt everything you have to have good control and solid off speed pitches, Which they most likely have.