Age 8: Ave 42, Above Ave 47, Hot 52, Elite +55
Age 9 Ave 45, Above Ave 51, Hot 57, Elite +62
Age 10 Ave 48, Above Ave 54, Hot 60, Elite +64
Age 11 Ave 50, Above Ave 56, Hot 62, Elite +66
Age 12 Ave 53, Above Ave 60, Hot 68, Elite +73
Age 13 Ave 56, Above Ave 64, Hot 72, Elite +76
Age 14 Ave 60, Above Ave 69, Hot 81, Elite +87
Interpretation of a University of Delaware study. FYI Elite translates to about one out of 850,000 sampled. So, if you are saying your 11 year old throws 70 mph, you wouldn’t be asking on this site if your child throws hard. The MLB scouts camped on your front lawn would already have given you some indication that your child throws fast for his age.
If your child throws in the Above Ave to Hot range, he’s giving the opposition all they can handle and then some.
My son turned 12 at the end of November. He’s hitting 65-66, and is sitting at 62-63 with his FB. That’s faster than just about anyone we see. But regardless of velocity, I’m proudest of the way he handles adversity. He doesn’t let hits, walks, or hit batters bother him. He just keeps trying to throw strikes.
damn, there’s 14 year olds who can throw 87? must be the delin betances’s of the world.
Can you do this for ages 15-18?
Throwing that hard is like… Cheating
Those numbers are entirely bogus. Especially the average, most 8 year olds barely can throw the ball from short to first.
We’re not talking about baseball players, we are talking about pitchers. Already the best arms of their age groups. Stop and think for a second. A team with 12 kids on it has 2 pitchers and 2-3 others that the coach puts on the mound out of necessity. So, out of the gate, I eliminate 80-85% of the baseball players of each age group. These weak arms you speak of are in that 80-85% chaff.
Ave 8 year old pitcher, that severely limits the sample set. Most youth baseball players never pitch…ever. These numbers are entirely consistent with what I see out in the real world, and they are from a sample size of about 1 million pitchers.
By the time you get out to the second and third standard deviations, you are talking about a small number of kids that reach each successive SD, but they do exist.
There are always outliers. So it goes.
The average for a high school Varsity pitcher where I live is probably 79-80 mph. That said, there is a kid that sits 91…there are also kids who get innings who sit 75.
A kid who is young and is a step or two above the average may or may not translate that as he moves along. A 14 year old Freshman throwing 78 for example would be above average where I live. He may be at 86 as a Senior or still at 78. A lot of variables there. How hard does he work? How big is he? How physically developed is he? When I coached youth football I saw 13 and 14 year olds all the time that looked like Lawrence Taylor as 8th graders and were not starters by the time they were Juniors or Seniors in high school. What happened? Frankly, they started puberty earlier than most of the other guys. So, a more physically developed 13/14 year old is usually going to dominate less developed guys the same age. By the time they reached 18, it had all evened out for the most part…guess what? Turns out they weren’t that good.
A kid that is several steps above the norm, so using the example above, a 14 year old Freshman throwing 83 for example, he stands a lot better chance of carrying that dominance forward from what I have seen.
This is a great topic. What are your thoughts about the correlation between long toss distance and velocity?
And also spin rate and velocity?
This was previously discussed:
Long toss distance and velocity is dependent on launch angle, spin, elevation, etc. It is only a rough approximation.
The numbers I remember and that seem to correlate pretty well to my son’s velocity are:
50 mph ~ 120’
60 mph ~ 170’
70 mph ~ 210’
80 mph ~ 260’
90 mph ~ 305’
100 mph ~ 360’
so 250’ ~ 78mph
300’ ~ 89 mph
350’ ~ 97 mph, although since the drag starts going up pretty quickly in the upper 90s that’s probably a bit on the optimistic side for 350’.
That correlates with my 12YO son who tops out at 65 and can one-hop it from 200’.
Well, a softball is heavier than a baseball and I have a blue ribbon from when I was 12 years old. I threw a softball a distance of 212’ which was further than anyone else in the three schools who participated in the annual event. (I also won the blueberry pie eating contest later in the day I was probably 5’6" and weighed in the 125-130 pound range at the time. I could also throw a football further than anyone else my age by at least 10 yards. Getting optimum trajectory is a key to getting long distances…I’d say even more than arm speed.
A slug fired from a leveled shotgun will see its projectile drop into the ground at about 75 yards. If I were to tilt it to a 45 degree launch angle, it would travel several hundred yards.
This is another reason long toss distances mean nothing. I routinely long tossed further than people with more arm speed. It’s an entirely different throwing motion.
This is a good article written by Dan Blewett. In the article the velocities are based not only on distance but also spin rate so there is a pretty wide range. Personally I believe long toss distance can be a predictor of potential mound velocity but can fall well short based on inefficiencies.
Are these top out speeds or sitting speeds?
I don’t like these too much because this isn’t considering weight height and puberty really. Some people start throwing gas at 10 because they are hitting puberty while others don’t blossom till 13-14+
A V E R A G E
You adjust up or down according to where you kids hormones are at a particular age. My son is 12YO, 5-4, 125lbs, throws mid-60’s with no signs of puberty. Above average but not off the charts. Then again, he hasn’t had that testosterone dump yet!!!
He is still 5’4 125 pounds. I wouldn’t expect anything less.
Yeah. Cough Aroldis Chapman cough
I’m a freshman and my fastball sits at 85 what do you mean elite
Tossing or throwing hard?~~long toss
I see minor leaguers come and go so quickly for worries about their velocity and lack of the mindset to pitch.
And yes, some of the best pitchers get looked over because lack of velocity. Who cares?
Go play independent ball and put up numbers if you are a really good pitcher. And in my mind, if someone knows how to pitch and faced decent enough competition then would they really get looked over that much if they competed well? No.
And if they were that good of a pitcher that dominated competition without velo and understand how to pitch to situations then they will get an opportunity.
This wanting of velocity cripples a pitchers ability to learn how to pitch without it. Everyone thinks professionals are all 95 plus…or even 90 plus.
I had 30 plus pitchers last year fresh out of college and in their first year of pro ball…20 of them couldn’t consistently touch 90…and some of them were my best guys that I would stick my neck out for. Because they knew how to pitch!
Teach your kids how to pitch…not how to throw off of a mound…all that BS mechanical work is secondary…learning how to pitch…read swings, read situations, learn command…all that far outweighs velo.