[quote=“kyleb”]What the studies show is that there are very clear kinematic differences between the fastball and changeup. Kinematics in this case means the motions of the body, the rates at which body segments rotate, and the angular velocities and displacements of the body’s joints.
Whether or not this is detectable by the average hitter is another question entirely, and not one that can be answered with any degree of confidence at this point.
Josh Kalk and others have done some rudimentary research on this using PITCHf/x differentiations and it is generally accepted that it is difficult - if not impossible - to distinguish a big league fastball from a big league changeup as a hitter before it is too late to change your approach.
This does not necessarily apply to lower levels of baseball, however. It stands to reason that similar kinematics and motions for the fastball and changeup are important to avoid tipping pitches, but similar does not imply identical. It also begs the question: How different must a pitcher’s kinematics and/or release point be before the average hitter can detect a tipped pitch in time to change their approach?[/quote]
Correct, differences do show up. But you do the same thing many others do in that you assume things that just aren’t part of that study as I read it.
Unless I’ve totally misunderstood what the study was doing, there was absolutely nothing in it trying to determine the effectiveness of any pitch.
Correct about there only being rudimentary studies having been done so far too. But you crisscross and mix-up the different levels to the point where its almost impossible to make any kind of judgment.
No one said the pitches had to be thrown identically, but common sense dictates that the closer they are, the more deceptive they’d be because even a minute delay in the detection would make the pitch more deceptive.
You can beg the question as much as you want, but there’s no definition for an “AVERAGE” hitter, so there’s no way it’s a question that can be answered.
When you use a description of a group of “ELITE”, you should also make sure you explain exactly what it means. I don’t have the report handy, but as I remember, the study group was defined. I may be wrong, but I believe D1 pitchers were in there. If that’s true, I will agree that all D1 pitchers play in an elite venue, but as for them all being elite in the sense that they’re all better than pitchers in any other college venue is questionable at best.
You shouldn’t get me wrong. I’m not saying now, nor have I ever said that a CU should be thrown exactly the same as a FB, other than the grip in order to be a devastatingly effective pitch. All I’ve really said is, the closer the two can be, the longer it takes hitters to recognize it in time to do something about it.