Unless you’re attending a really small school, for the most part the only kids who make varsity as a freshman are those who are 1) exceptionally talented AND 2) physically developed.
The likelihood of both being present in one player is very rare. That being said, it also doesn’t guarantee future success for that one player nor does it preclude success for others. The reason is that players develop at varying rates.
When you speak of high school freshman, you’re talking about 14 year old kids…maybe fifteen. That’s REALLY early in their physical development. At those ages (appx 13-16) you’ll see dramatic developmental changes/differences from month to month let alone year to year.
Their is also the issue of timing. My son (a hs freshman), for example, was born two and a half months premature and has a late June birthday in a state with an Aug 1st academic cutoff. As such, he’s usually one of the youngest kids in his class and should actually still be an eight grader. He lags behind other freshman in physical development but would probably be average amongst eighth graders.
You have to keep all of these factors in mind before drawing a conclusion.
I knew of a young man who worked at a local pizzeria as a high schooler. He barely got off the bench as a high school senior on a very mediocre high school team. Went to a local division 3 school.
This past season, he won a World Series ring with the Houston Astros.
The kids name was Luke Gregorson.