The following was published by BASEBALL ANALYSTS, on October 26, 2006
The Ballad of Danny Ray Herrera
By Kent Bonham
And so it begins.
On Monday, Baseball America published its 2006 Minor League Position Rankings, ushering in Prospect Lists Season around the web. Like the first bus loading senior citizens for a foliage tour through the Champlain Valley, or a group of coeds dressing up like naughty nurses for a fraternity Halloween party, it's a certain sign that fall is now officially upon us. And while most of the ensuing focus and discussion will rightly fall on the prospects who make such lists, I'd like to turn your attention to one player who almost surely will not.
Daniel Ray Herrera was drafted out of the University of New Mexico by the Texas Rangers in the 45th round (Pick #1345) of this year's draft. He grew up in Odessa, TX and attended Permian High, the school made famous by "Friday Night Lights." (Unfortunately for Herrera, he didn't attend at the same time as Minka Kelly). Wait a second. Where was I now? Ah, yes. . .
Herrera stands a wee 5'7", so he won't be selling any jeans. And a fastball that tops out at 86 MPH won't cause radar guns to make sweet love to him. But something happened to Herrera's game during his final college season, when all he did was get guys out:
YEAR CL IP ERA BB SO BAA
2004 FR 72.67 5.33 24 51 .308
2005 SO 93.00 6.20 33 67 .310
2006 JR 128.33 2.24 29 104 .238
As impressive as that junior year appears to the naked eye, it's worth analyzing in even greater detail.
Consider the following:
Herrera pitched in the college equivalent of (a pre-2006) Coors Field, with a three-year Park Factor of 159 (which means his home field has yielded an average of 59% more runs than a neutral park over the past three seasons). Last season, he pitched in stadiums with a Total Park Factor of 139.6. Yet, his ERA over 128 IP was 2.24, the third-lowest of all draft-eligible college pitchers last year with more than 100 innings pitched.
Moving to the world of Defense-Independent Pitching Stats, Herrera's DIPS ERA creeps up to 3.28, a general function of the relatively large number of hits he allowed in the thin mountain air. But still. Adjusting his DIPS ERA for the full effects of the level of competition against whom he pitched and the parks in which he threw, dropped his fully-adjusted ERA back down to 2.20.
But that's not all.
Prior to June's draft, scouts most often cited five players as the most pronounced college groundball pitchers. With this in mind, I went back before the draft and hand-calculated the Ground Outs/Air Outs (not all batted ball data is publicly-available at the college level) for each, to see how Herrera compared:
Danny Ray Herrera (LHP, New Mexico) 2.86
Derrick Lutz (RHP, George Washington) 2.23
Jason Godin (RHP, Old Dominion) 1.95
Brett Sinkbeil (RHP, Missouri State) 1.86
Jared Hughes (RHP, Long Beach State) 1.60
Dallas Buck (RHP, Oregon State) N/A
Fine, you're probably saying. Big deal. The kid had one good year in college. He induced a lot of ground balls, threw strikes, and got a reasonable number of whiffs while pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. But he's short and doesn't throw especially hard, remember? Surely, the minor leagues would have exposed him for what he really is, right?
Let's take a look.
After breezing through the AZL for nine innings, Herrera got the call up to the Class A-Advanced Bakersfield Blaze of the California League and headed to the bullpen. Over the course of 54.3 IP, here's how he fared:
Herrera Lg. Avg.
OPS Against .518 .764
BABIP .293 .333
WHIP 0.94 1.47
BB/9 1.99 3.58
K/9 10.10 7.62
HR/9 0.00 0.81
GB% 70.7% 45.7%
In other words, Herrera once again disproved the doubters.
Now, none of this is to say that Herrera is certain to maintain these levels of performance as he continues his march towards the major leagues. As with the majority of prospects at his age and level of development, the odds are most certainly against him.